CME ScoreBoard Header

CCMC CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2026-03-22T23:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-03-22T23:24Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/45262/-1
CME Note: CME observed to the W in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1, also W in STEREO A COR2 after a data gap ends at 2026-03-23T03:38Z. The source is a wide eruption from AR 14392 (S17W65), associated with a C1.5 flare peaking at 2026-03-22T23:09Z as observed in GOES SUVI 131. A small filament eruption near AR 14392 begins at 2026-03-22T22:50Z in GOES SUVI 304, setting off a wider rising and breaking of field lines over AR 14392 and likely extending around the west limb, starting around 2026-03-22T23:34Z in GOES SUVI 171/195/284. This is followed by a post-eruptive arcade over AR 14392 observed in GOES SUVI 171/195/284/304.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-03-26T07:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: SIDC
Prediction Method Note:

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 60323
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 23 Mar 2026, 1317UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Mar 2026  10CM FLUX: 120 / AP: 014
PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Mar 2026  10CM FLUX: 118 / AP: 015
PREDICTIONS FOR 25 Mar 2026  10CM FLUX: 116 / AP: 010


Coronal mass ejections: A CME seen in LASCO-C2 images as launched on 23 Mar at 00:00 UTC is expected to deliver a glancing blow on the first half of 26 Mar.

Lead Time: 21.50 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) on 2026-03-25T09:30Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy